2012-2013 Season

When Will the U.S. Economy Break Out of its Growth Rut?

 Stuart  Hoffman

Stuart Hoffman
Senior VP & Chief Economist
PNC Financial Services Group

View Biography

The U.S. economy has grown at a sub-par 2% real GDP growth pace adding only 2 million private sector jobs in each of the past 2 years. Federal fiscal restraint in the form of tax hikes and spending cuts ("sequestration") will prevent an upside break- out for the economy from its growth "rut" in 2013 but improving consumer spending, housing and business investment will guard against a downside break out into recession. The Federal Reserve will maintain its highly accommodative monetary policy so short-term interest rate will remain at "ground level" in 2013 and 2014. The stock market will outperform the bond market in 2013 and 2014 so a balanced investment portfolio tilted toward stocks should deliver mid- to high single digits returns without taking undue risk. Stuart Hoffman will take a deep dive into the U.S economy with DEC members and guests to explain this and more.
  • Meeting Date: Thursday, March 14, 2013
  • Time: 11:30 a.m.
  • Location: The Westin Book Cadillac


 Richard   DeVore

Richard DeVore Executive Vice President and Regional President, Detroit and Southeast Michigan
PNC Financial Services Group, Inc.


Speaker Biography

Stuart Hoffman   
Stuart G. Hoffman is a senior vice president and chief economist for The PNC Financial Services Group and serves as the principle spokesperson on all economic issues for PNC. Hoffman was recognized as the most accurate forcaster for 2004 by BusinessWeek and the second most accurate economist and interest rate forecaster for 2006 by USA Today. In addition, he was named one of the top forecasters in the Wall Street Journal economic survey covering the 1988 to 2012 period.

Hoffman joined PNC in 1980 after a six-year tenure with the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He became vice president and senior economist for PNC in 1987 and was elected senior vice president and chief economist in 1991.

He is frequently quoted in The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times and Barron’s. He is a regular guest on CNBC, Bloomberg TV and The Wall Street Journal Radio Report. In addition, he is regularly interviewed by the Associated Press and Reuter’s news wire services.

Hoffman is currently serving on the American Bankers Economic Advisory Committee. He also serves on the board of directors of the Economic Club of Pittsburgh – the local chapter of National Association for Business Economics (NABE). He is a past president of the National Association for Business Economics.

Hoffman is a 1971 graduate of Pennsylvania State University. He received a master’s degree in 1973 and a doctorate degree in economics in 1975, both from the University of Cincinnati, where he was a Charles Phelps Taft Memorial Fellow. In 2004, the University of Cincinnati honored him as a Distinguished Alumnus and in 2011 presented him with The Carl Lindner Award for Outstanding Business Achievement.